I just finished going over Christopher Steiner’s “$20 Per Gallon” futuristic vision of our world as oil prices go up. It’s very opinionated work and if you are political left or right I’m sure you will find tons of faults with the vision that Christopher sees but if you go in with curiosity and ask yourself what will happen when the prices of oil go up as much as they did the last 10 years (about 400%) then this work is very interesting.

My father bough about 14 years ago a Volkswagen Polo that gets like 60 to 70 miles per gallon and it’s not a hybrid. Back then I was thinking why do you need efficiency but as some Europeans are paying 8 to 9 dollars per gallon this has proved to be a smart decision. In fact in most of Europe I notice that almost half the cars are getting over 50 miles per gallon.I think this is just the start as prices go up and that is outlined in the book. Christopher also predicts more electric cars and also fewer cars as people concentrate in cities.

The other thing he predicts that was startling to me is that giants like Walmart are going to drastically transform or go bust. One thing I was surprised to hear is that Walmart had 300 what they call “Ghost Stores” which are empty abandoned old Walmarts that they have 500 full time employees selling. It takes a container ship something like $1200 dollars to get from China to New York 10 years ago but it’s 300% more now, when oil prices go up all that will be history he thinks. So America will no longer have endless supply of cheap Chinese stuff.

The author thinks that people will get very careful what they buy and fix it more often as it breaks. Also most of the stuff will be made locally due to the transportation cost. Another thing that will not be shipped from across the world is food. He thinks that will be history. Instead Christopher thinks that the food will be grown close to the cities and also within cities he thinks that the more and more people will grow food on their roofs and back yards. One interesting idea that I heard form the author is that new businesses will come up that will maintain people’s food gardens, like we have companies that maintain pools today for example.

My parents started a small garden as a hobby it produces so many cucumbers, peppers, cabbage, strawberries, tomatoes, potatoes and other food that they can’t consume it all and this is very very tiny garden. It was amazing to see this and the garden was constructed for only $300!I also see a future where more people make their own organic food as the prices go up!

Another thing the author tackles is travel. He thinks that middle class can forget overseas vacations, it’s going to be a luxury of just the elites. The price of airline tickets are going to get very expensive. He predicts most big carriers to go bust and only the small ones that become efficient like Jet Blue, AirTran and similar to survive but only on profitable routes. Most small cities are going o loose their airports! What the author things will happen is more high speed rail like in Europe connecting the cities and less people flying.

Another change that he talks about in his book is our future homes. He think higher density like 24,000 per square mile in New York is going to be our future and that will also change the site our homes. The average of 2400 square feet will be history. The home will get much smaller and become more efficient. New ways of heating and cooling will be found and he talks about them like geo, solar, wind and so on.

In any case Christopher Steiner’s work got me thinking about the subject and how it will effect small businesses like me. I think we will see more telecommuting, more virtual technologies emerging and more flexibility as people look for better lifestyles.

I read tons of very negative comments about the book online because the author is very opinionated on creating the world the way he sees it better then it is. I try to to just understand what is more likely to happen since I know in reality there is not much I can influence the outcome but would like to know what that outcome will be in reality 20 years from now.

What do you think 20 dollar per gallon gas will do and how will it shape our future? Leave your comment below would love to read it and reply to it.

PS: One think I do like about the book is that he puts the chapters in progression as the gas price goes up, for example Chapter $10 per gallon, Chapter $12 per gallon and so on, very interesting!

Sincerely,

Dan Stojadinovic
TYBO